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Prediction for CME (2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-21T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8736/-1
CME Note: From near disk center, AR 12371. Associated with M-class flares.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T17:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -195
Dst min. time: 2015-06-23T05:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T14:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Jun 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 22-Jun 24 2015 is 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 22-Jun 24 2015

            Jun 22     Jun 23     Jun 24
00-03UT        3          6 (G2)     4     
03-06UT        3          6 (G2)     4     
06-09UT        3          5 (G1)     3     
09-12UT        3          4          2     
12-15UT        6 (G2)     4          2     
15-18UT        7 (G3)     4          2     
18-21UT        7 (G3)     3          2     
21-00UT        6 (G2)     3          3     

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled
until the arrival of the combination of the 18, 19, and 21 Jun coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) around midday on day one (22 Jun). G1-Minor to
G3-Strong geomagnetic storm conditions are expected during the latter
half of the day, followed by G1-Minor to G2-Moderate geomagnetic storm
conditions on day two (23 Jun) as CME activity persists.

Lead Time: 2.60 hour(s)
Difference: 3.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-06-22T15:23Z

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